Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk

Contents:

Author Info

  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Til Schuermann
  • Björn-Jakob Treutler

Abstract

The potential for portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconomic model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose a model for exploring credit risk diversification across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity reduces shock sensitivity. Allowing for regional parameter heterogeneity seems to better approximate the loss distributions generated by the fully heterogenous model than allowing just for industry heterogeneity. The regional model also exhibits less shock sensitivity.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11493.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11493.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk , M. Hashem Pesaran, Til Schuermann, Bjorn-Jakob Treutler. in The Risks of Financial Institutions , Carey and Stulz. 2006
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11493

Note: AP CF
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  2. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-23, March.
  3. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 1416, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘Random Coefficient Panel Data Models’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0434, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  6. Carey, Mark, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 929-951, May.
  7. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June.
  8. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
  9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  10. Christopher James & David C. Smith, 2000. "Are Banks Still Special? New Evidence on Their Role in the Corporate Capital-Raising Process," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(1), pages 52-63.
  11. Kenneth D. Garbade, 2001. "Pricing Corporate Securities as Contingent Claims," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072238, December.
  12. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  14. Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0568, European Central Bank.
  15. Altman, Edward I. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Saunders, Anthony, 2002. "Credit ratings and the BIS capital adequacy reform agenda," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 909-921, May.
  16. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
  17. Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 1531, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  19. Mark Carey, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," International Finance Discussion Papers 726, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  21. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  22. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  23. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  24. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
  25. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
  27. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
  28. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing tool," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1416, European Central Bank.
  3. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  4. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2008. "Regulatory capital for market and credit risk interaction: is current regulation always conservative?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-09 financial crisis in a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1285, European Central Bank.
  6. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective," IEPR Working Papers 06.43, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  8. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "The impact of economic shocks in the rest of the world on South Africa: Evidence from a global VAR," Working Papers 201328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, Hashem, 2009. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Working Paper Series 0998, European Central Bank.
  11. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
  12. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2010. "Does adding up of economic capital for market- and credit risk amount to conservative risk assessment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 703-712, April.
  13. Alexander Chudik & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007–08 financial crisis and the 2010–11 sovereign debt crisis title," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.