How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios
AbstractWe give a precise operational definition to three requirements the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision specifies for stress tests: Plausibility and severity of stress scenarios as well as suggestiveness of risk reducing actions. The basic idea of our approach is to define a suitable region of plausibility in terms of the risk factor distribution and search systematically for the worst portfolio loss over this region. One key innovation compared to the existing literature is the solution of two open problems. We suggest a measure of plausibility that is not prone to the problem of dimensional dependence of maximum loss and we derive a way to consistently deal with situations where some but not all risk factors are stressed. Among the various approaches used for partial scenarios, plausibility is maximised by setting the non stressed risk factors to their conditional expected value given the value of the stressed risk factors. JEL classification: G28, G32, G20, C15.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 150.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 05 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Other versions of this item:
- Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2009-03-14 (Banking)
- NEP-REG-2009-03-14 (Regulation)
- NEP-RMG-2009-03-14 (Risk Management)
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