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Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

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Søren Johansen

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Abstract

Regression coefficients are interpreted by a counterfactual experiment. For simultaneous equations this experiment can be implemented if the coefficients are identified, and throws some light on the role of instruments and the method of indirect least squares. This paper discusses another counterfactual experiment in the vector autoregressive model in order to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. The dynamics of the model is used to implement a long-run change by changing the current values. The counterfactual experiment can be conducted precisely when the cointegrating relation is identified. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 67 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 93-104
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:1:p:93-104

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  1. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Niels Framroze Møller, 2006. "Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model: Some Illustrative Examples," Discussion Papers 06-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2009. "Modelling Global Trade Flows - Results from a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
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  7. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen Doornik, 2003. "Identifying, Estimating and Testing Restricted Cointegrated Systems: An Overview," Economics Papers 2003-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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