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Long-run forecasting in multicointegrated systems

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Author Info
Tom Engsted (Department of Finance, The Aarhus School of Business, Denmark)
Niels Haldrup (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)
Boriss Siliverstovs (DIW Berlin, Germany)

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Abstract

We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where multicointegration typically occurs. A loss function based on a standard mean square forecast error (MSFE) criterion focuses on the forecast errors of the flow variables alone. Likewise, a loss function based on the triangular representation of cointegrated systems (suggested by Christoffersen and Diebold) considers forecast errors associated with changes in both stock (modelled through the cointegrating restrictions) and flow variables. We suggest a new loss function based on the triangular representation of multicointegrated systems which further penalizes deviations from the long-run relationship between the levels of stock and flow variables as well as changes in the flow variables. Among other things, we show that if one is concerned with all possible long-run relations between stock and flow variables, this new loss function entails high and increasing forecasting gains compared to both the standard MSFE criterion and Christoffersen and Diebold's criterion. This paper demonstrates the importance of carefully selecting loss functions in forecast evaluation of models involving stock and flow variables. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.925
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 315-335
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:5:p:315-335

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leachman, Lori L, 1996. "New Evidence on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: A Multicointegration Approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 695-704, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. " Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Engsted, Tom & Gonzalo, Jesus & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Testing for multicointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 259-266, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Boriss Siliverstovs, . "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Economics Working Papers 2001-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-46, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Engsted, T. & Johansen, S., 1997. "Granger's Representation Theorem and Multicointegration," Economics Working Papers eco97/15, European University Institute.
  16. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Holler, Manfred & Skott, Peter, . "The importance of setting the agenda," Economics Working Papers 2003-8, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Local Empirical Spectral Measure of Multivariate Processes with Long Range Dependence," Economics Working Papers 2002-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Haldrup, Niels, . "Empirical analysis of price data in the delineation of the relevant geographical market in competition analysis," Economics Working Papers 2003-9, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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