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Multicointegration in US Consumption Data

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and the stock of consumers' wealth, which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between the flows of income and expenditure, on the other hand, can be thought of as a stock-flow model, in which multicointegration is likely to occur. We apply recently developed I(2) techniques for testing for multicointegrating relations and find supporting evidence for the existence of multicointegration in US consumption data.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.40953.de/dp382.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 382.

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Length: 31 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp382

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Keywords: Cointegration; multicointegration; I(2) processes; consumption;

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  7. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2000. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 120, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  8. Flavin, Marjorie, 1993. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 651-66, July.
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  12. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. " Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-54, May.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 2006. "Statistical analysis of hypotheses on the cointegrating relations in the I(2) model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 81-115, May.
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  18. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Boriss Siliverstovs & Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup, 2003. "Long-Run Forecasting in Multicointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 381, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2012. "Between Cointegration and Multicointegration. Modelling Time Series Dynamics by Cumulative Error Correction Models," WIFO Working Papers 431, WIFO.
  3. Vanessa Berenguer Rico & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre, 2006. "Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors," Working Papers in Economics 160, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  4. Hualde, Javier, 2014. "Estimation of long-run parameters in unbalanced cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 761-778.

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