Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The tradition is questioned

Contents:

Author Info

  • N. Vijayamohanan Pillai

    (Centre for Development Studies)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably required to verify the empirical validity of the residual whiteness assumptions underlying the very model, their results might be misleading. This criticism in fact applies to all regression analysis in general. (ii) As the time series regression approach of these studies did not account for possible non-stationarity (i.e., unit root integratedness) in the series, their significant results might be just the misleading result of spurious regression. They also failed to benefit from an analytical framework for a meaningful long-run equilibrium and short-run `causality' in a cointegrating space of error correction. (iii) These studies, by adopting a methodology suitable to a developed power system in advanced economies, sought to correlate the less correlatables in the context of an underdeveloped power system in a less developed economy. All explanations of association of electricity consumption in a hopeless situation of chronic shortage and unreliability with its generally accepted `causatives' (as in the developed systems) of population, per capita income, average revenue, etc., all in their aggregate time series, might not hold much water here. Our empirical results prove our secepticism at least in the context of Kerala power system. We find that the cost of dispensing with model adequacy diagnosis before accepting and interpreting the seemingly significant results is very high. We find that all the variables generally recognised for electricity demand analysis are non-stationary, I(1). We find that all the possible combinations of these I(1) variables fail to be explained in a cointegrating space and even their stationary growth rates remain unrelated in the Granger-`causality' sense.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cds.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp312.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India in its series Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers with number 312.

    as in new window
    Length: 103 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:312

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Peasanth Nagar, Trivandrum 695 011, Kerala
    Phone: +91 471 2448 881
    Fax: +91 471 2447 137
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cds.edu
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: India; Kerala; demand analysis; forecasting; non-stationarity;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
    4. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
      • Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
      • ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP -516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
    6. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Ng, Serena, 1996. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 435-63, July.
    10. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988. "Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Crafts, N.F.R. & Leybourne, S.J. & Mills, T.C., 1988. "Economic Growth In Nineteeth Century Britain: Comparisons With Europe In The Context Of Gerschenkron'S Hypotheses," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 308, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
    15. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1988. "Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
    17. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
    18. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    19. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    20. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
    21. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
    22. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    23. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
    24. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
    25. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    27. Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983. "Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    29. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    30. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    31. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
    32. Robert F. Engle & David F. Hendry & David Trumble, 1985. "Small-Sample Properties of ARCH Estimators and Tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 66-93, February.
    33. Koop, Gary, 1992. "'Objective' Bayesian Unit Root Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 65-82, Jan.-Marc.
    34. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2003. "A contribution to peak load pricing theory and application," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 346, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    2. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "Strengthening Infrastructure: Power Sector Reforms- Some Viable Proposals For Kerala," MPRA Paper 8869, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamprasad M. Pujar).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.