Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum

Contents:

Author Info

  • Phillips, P C B

Abstract

This paper provides detailed responses to the following eight discussants of the author's paper "To criticize the critics: an objective Bayesian analysis of stochastic trends": Gary Koop and Mark Steel; Edward Leamer; In-Moo Kim and G. S. Maddala; Dale J. Poirier; Peter C. Schotman and Herman K. van Dijk; James H. Stock; David DeJong and Charles H. Whiteman; and Christopher Sims. This reply puts new emphasis on the call made in the earlier paper for objective Bayesian analysis in time-series; it underlines the need of a new approach, especially with regard to posterior odds testing; and it draws attention to a new methodology of Bayesian analysis developed in a recent paper by Phillips and Ploberger (1991a). Some new simulations that shed light on certain comments of the discussants are provided, new empirical evidence is reported with the extended Nelson-Plosser data supplied by Schotman and van Dijk; and the new Phillips-Ploberger posterior odds test is given a brief empirical illustration. Copyright 1991 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0883-7252%28199110%2F199112%296%3A4%3C435%3ABRAURD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-N&origin=bc
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 6 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (Oct.-Dec.)
Pages: 435-73

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:6:y:1991:i:4:p:435-73

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  3. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  6. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
  7. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
  8. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1991. "Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 980, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1989. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 933, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1981. "Marginal Densities of Instrumental Variable Estimators in the General Single Equation Case," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 609, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Holly, A & Phillips, P C B, 1979. "A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the k-Class Estimator of a Coefficient in a Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1527-47, November.
  14. Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1002, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jin-Yu Zhang & Yong Li & Zhu-Ming Chen, 2013. "Unit Root Hypothesis in the Presence of Stochastic Volatility, a Bayesian Analysis," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 89-100, January.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews & Hong-Yuan Chen, 1992. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1026, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 188-195.
  4. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Stéphane Adjemian & Florian Pelgrin, 2008. "Un regard bayésien sur les modèles dynamiques de la macroéconomie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 127-152.
  7. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
  8. Kadane, Joseph B. & Chan, Ngai Hang & Wolfson, Lara J., 1996. "Priors for unit root models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 99-111, November.
  9. Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2012. "A New Bayesian Unit Root Test in Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers 14-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  10. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
  11. Li, Yong & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of stochastic volatility and leverage effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2035-2038.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Models and Forecasts of Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1024, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2010. "Electricity Demand Analysis and Forecasting- The Tradition is Questioned," Working Papers id:2966, eSocialSciences.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
  16. Ricardo Gonçalves Silva, 2004. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression for Autoregressive Models with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrics 0405002, EconWPA.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:6:y:1991:i:4:p:435-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.