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Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09

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  • Matthieu Bussière
  • Giovanni Callegari
  • Fabio Ghironi
  • Giulia Sestieri
  • Norihiko Yamano

Abstract

This paper introduces a new methodology for the estimation of demand trade elasticities based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand, with the foundation of a stylized theoretical model. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the large movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-09 Great Trade Collapse.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17712.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17712

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References

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  1. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Koen De Backer & Norihiko Yamano, 2007. "The Measurement of Globalisation using International Input-Output Tables," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2007/8, OECD Publishing.
  3. Florin Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety and Business Cycles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680634, HAL.
  4. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
  5. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 08-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  7. Kei-Mu Yi & Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Working Papers 10/142, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
  9. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
  10. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  11. Dong Guo & Colin Webb & Norihiko Yamano, 2009. "Towards Harmonised Bilateral Trade Data for Inter-Country Input-Output Analyses: Statistical Issues," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2009/4, OECD Publishing.
  12. Norihiko Yamano & Nadim Ahmad, 2006. "The OECD Input-Output Database: 2006 Edition," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2006/8, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Taglioni, Daria & Zavacka, Veronika, 2013. "Innocent bystanders: how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters," Working Paper Series 1530, European Central Bank.
  2. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, Xing Wang, 2012. "Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Coughlin, Cletus C., 2014. "The great trade collapse and rebound: a state-by-state view," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 13-33.
  5. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua, 2013. "The import content of global demand in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
  8. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, 05.
  9. Güneş Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial exposure and the international transmission of financial shocks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Bornali Bhandari, 2013. "Cross-Price Effects and US Trade Elasticities," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 273-313, August.
  11. Brender,Anton & Pisani, Florence & Gagna, Emile, 2012. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Placing a curb on growth," CEPS Papers 6951, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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