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Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence

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Author Info
Mario Marazzi
Nathan Sheets
Robert J. Vigfusson
Jon Faust
Joseph Gagnon
Jaime Marquez
Robert F. Martin
Trevor Reeve
John Rogers

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Abstract

This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices, from above 0.5 during the 1980s to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2 during the last decade. This decline in the pass-through coefficient is robust to the measure of foreign prices that is included in the regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether the estimation is done in levels or differences, and whether U.S. prices are included as an explanatory variable. Notably, the largest estimates of pass-through are obtained when commodity prices are excluded from the regression. In this case, the pass-through coefficient captures both the direct effect of the exchange rate on import prices and an indirect effect operating through changes in commodity prices. Our work indicates that an increasing share of exchange rate pass-through has occurred through this commodity-price channel in recent years. While the source of the decline in pass-through is difficult to pin down with certainty, our work points to several factors, including the reduced share of (commodity-intensive) industrial supplies in U.S. imports and the increased presence of Chinese exporters in U.S. markets. We detect a particular step down in the pass-through coefficient around the time of the Asian financial crisis and document a shift in the export pricing behavior of emerging Asian firms around that time.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 833.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:833

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Imports - Prices;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael M. Knetter, 1995. "Pricing To Market In Response To Unobservable And Observable Shocks," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anne Gron & Deborah L. Swenson, 2000. "Cost Pass-Through in the U.S. Automobile Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 316-324, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  5. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-35.
  9. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1995. "Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 289-310, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Martin Glaum & Marko Brunner & Holger Himmel, 2000. "The DAX and the Dollar: The Economic Exchange Rate Exposure of German Corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 715-724, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  17. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18. [Downloadable!]
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