Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martins Bitans
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The paper examines the exchange rate pass-through in a set of 13 East European countries during the period of 1993–2003. The pass-through estimates are derived from a recursive VAR model in first differences, and the impact of exchange rate changes on both producer and consumer prices is studied. The estimates obtained for two sub-sample periods generally show an incomplete pass-through over a two-year horizon. In addition, the results imply a considerable cross-country variation and suggest that a significant decline (by nearly 50%) in the pass-through is possible over time. In particular, it is found that the exchange rate pass-through in East European countries is positively and statistically significantly related to the average inflation rate and degree of exchange rate persistence. Moreover, the results confirm the existence of a strong relationship between the pass-through and changes in the import structure. Finally, there is some limited evidence that the magnitude of exchange rate pass-through might be positively related to the degree of country's openness to foreign trade.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bank.lv/public_files/images/img_lb/izdevumi/english/citas/Pass-Trough_Exchange_Rates.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.macroeconomics.lv/sites/default/files/pass-trough_exchange_rates.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2004/04.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 30 Dec 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200404

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: K. Valdemara iela 2a, LV-1050 Riga
    Phone: +371 702 2300
    Fax: +371 702 2420
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.bank.lv/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: pass-through of exchange rate; recursive VAR model; Exchange Rate Mechanism II;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M & Storgaard, Peter Ejler, 2002. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Nominal Prices Are Set in Advance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility," Working Papers 042000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
    6. Tim Hampton, 2001. "How much do import price shocks matter for consumer prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," International Finance 0004002, EconWPA.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEG Working Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-38, May.
    10. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    12. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Why do Consumer Prices React Less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Charles Engel, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates And the Implications for Exchange-Rate Policy: A Survey Of a Few Recent New Open-Economy..," NBER Working Papers 8725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld., 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-121, University of California at Berkeley.
    15. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1980. "The Collapse of Purchasing Power Parities during the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 0569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-54, September.
    21. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
    22. Wing T. Woo, 1984. "Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 511-536.
    23. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
    24. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
    25. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0009, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    26. Adolfson, Malin, 2002. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Working Paper Series 136, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    27. Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
    28. Adolfson, Malin, 2002. "Implications of Exchange Rate Objectives under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 135, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    29. Louis Kuijs, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 02/80, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Hamid Faruqee & Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2002. "Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices," IMF Working Papers 02/224, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Valerie Herzberg & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2003. "Import prices and exchange rate pass-through: theory and evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 182, Bank of England.
    32. Menon, Jayant, 1996. "The Degree and Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-through: Market Structure, Non-tariff Barriers and Multinational Corporations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 434-44, March.
    33. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Research 19, National Bank of Belgium.
    34. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    36. Jaewoo Lee, 1997. "The Response Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Market Concentration In A Small Economy: The Evidence From Korea," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 142-145, February.
    37. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    39. Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M, 2000. "Monetary Policy In The Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting Rules And Exchange Rate Flexibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 2454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Agnes Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 03/141, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    42. José Manuel Campa & Jose M. González Mínguez, 2002. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0219, Banco de Espa�a.
    43. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
    44. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1981. "The collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970's," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 145-165.
    45. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
    46. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    47. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1996. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Irish Import Prices," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    50. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
    52. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    53. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 03/130, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    55. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81 Bank for International Settlements.
    56. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    57. Feinberg, Robert M & Kaplan, Seth, 1992. "The Response of Domestic Prices to Expected Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 267-80, April.
    58. Krugman, Paul R., 1978. "Purchasing power parity and exchange rates : Another look at the evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 397-407, August.
    59. Schröder, Michael & Hüfner, Felix P., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: a European perspective," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-20, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    60. Anderton, Robert, 2003. "Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 0219, European Central Bank.
    61. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    62. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
    2. Oxana Babecká-Kucharèuková, 2009. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 137-152, June.
    3. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States," Working Paper Series 1120, European Central Bank.
    4. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR," Working Paper Series 1636, European Central Bank.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivars Tillers).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.