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Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic

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Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk

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Abstract

This paper aims at estimating the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for the Czech Republic. The existing empirical literature does not come to a consensus about the degree of pass-through to Czech inflation. Since there is no unique approach regarding how to measure ERPT, we use various specifications found in the pass-through literature for the Czech Republic. In addition, we estimate the pass-through along the distribution chain in the spirit of McCarthy (2007). We try to explore the properties of exchange rate shock transmission into Czech consumer prices by comparing impulse responses among 11 specifications estimated on data transformed in monthly differences and in annual rates. Equilibrium pass-through is estimated with the help of the VEC model. In addition, we try to account for possible variation in time. The simplest approach is a re-estimation of VAR models on two sub-periods. Our second strategy is the estimation of the error correction equation with the Kalman filter. Finally, we explore how the pass-through differs between tradable (3 sub-groups) and non-tradable goods. We find that the speed of exchange rate shock transmission to all prices is quite high. However, in absolute terms, ERPT does not exceed 25 – 30%.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/12.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/12

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through inflation Kalman filter VAR VECM.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2002. "Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations?," NBER Working Papers 8748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The Icfai Journal of Monetary Economics, Icfai Press, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
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  9. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets," Working Paper Series 739, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  16. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Elke Hahn, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  19. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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