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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries

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  • Coricelli, Fabrizio
  • Jazbec, Bostjan
  • Masten, Igor

Abstract

In this Paper we analyse the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four EU accession countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Estimation of pass-through effect of exchange rate changes to CPI inflation is complemented by I(2) co-integration analysis of stochastic nominal trends. The results allow a clear ranking of countries according to the size of the pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance. In particular, we find that perfect pass-through effect can be associated with accommodative exchange rate policy, which can moreover become the most important source of inflationary pressures. The analysis suggests that for CEEC-4 the early adoption of the euro can provide the most efficient framework for reducing inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3894.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3894

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Related research

Keywords: emu accession; I(2) co-integration analysis; pass-through effect;

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Cited by:
  1. Korhonen, Iikka & Wachtel, Paul, 2005. "A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "The Empirical Range of Pass-Through in US, German and Japanese Macrodata," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 44, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0822, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Igor Masten & Bostjan Jazbec & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2004. "L’influence du régime de change sur l’inflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
  6. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matúš Senaj, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Slovakia and the New EU Member States (in Slovak)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(1-2), pages 40-57, January.
  8. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 427-437 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Alexander Mihailov, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through on Prices in Macrodata: A Comparative Sensitivity Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 568, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  11. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
  12. Gonzalo Caprirolo & Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17g, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
  13. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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