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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?

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  • Hakan Kara
  • Hande Kucuk Tuger
  • Umit Ozlale
  • Burc Tuger
  • Devrim Yavuz
  • Eray M. Yucel

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of exchange rates on domestic prices in Turkey. We seek to demonstrate the variations (if any) in the exchange rate pass-through across different exchange rate regimes, identify the determinants of this change, and characterize the degree and extent of pass-through across different sub-sectors. Our empirical results reveal that the pass-through of exchange rates to domestic prices has declined in the post-2001 period in comparison with the earlier episodes –thanks to a decline in the “indexation” behavior. These findings suggest that switching to floating exchange rate regime and implementing an ambitious disinflation policy have contributed, to a large extent, to the reduction in the pass-through. Nevertheless, the impact of exchange rate on inflation, especially in the traded good is still notable, pointing out that the effect of nominal exchange rate movement on relative prices have increased in the float period.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0504.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0504

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through; Time-varying parameters; Seemingly unrelated regressions; Disinflation; Floating exchange rate regime;

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References

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  1. Felipe G. Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: From the Band to Floating and Beyond," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 152, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Elif C. Arbatli, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Looking for Asymmetries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 85-124.
  6. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  8. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  9. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2004. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/208, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Honohan, Patrick & Shi, Anging, 2001. "Deposit dollarization and the financial sector in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2748, The World Bank.
  12. Eric Parrado & Alain Ize, 2002. "Dollarization, Monetary Policy, and the Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 02/188, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  15. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1993. "Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 93/70, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Hakan Berument, 2002. "Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Enflasyon Dinamiði : Türkiye Örneði," Departmental Working Papers 0202, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2009. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 09-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  3. Hatipoglu, Ozan & Alper, C. Emre, 2007. "Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 7107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008.
  4. Peeters, Marga, 2005. "What about monetary transmission in Albania? Is the exchange rate pass-through (still) the main channel?," MPRA Paper 23671, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2005.
  5. Ara Volkan & Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2007/6, Turkish Economic Association, revised Aug 2007.
  6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44 - 87.
  7. John Beirne & Martin Bijsterbosch, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States," Working Paper Series 1120, European Central Bank.
  8. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger, 2005. "Some Evidence on the Irrationality of Inflation Expectations in Turkey," Working Papers 0512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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