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Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries

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  • Darvas, Zsolt

Abstract

This paper studies a particular aspect of the choice of exchange rate regime by EU candidate countries in the run-up to membership of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The fact that these countries have adopted various exchange rate systems reflects a divergence of opinion on the appropriate way to handle macroeconomics and, in particular, to curb inflation. This paper studies the connection between changes in the exchange rate and inflation as perceived in various exchange rate systems in order to draw conclusions with regard to the possible role of exchange rate management in achieving and maintaining low inflation in these countries. To this end we model price and exchange rate changes simultaneously and incorporate adjustment towards the equilibrium real exchange rate. We use a state-space model and the Kalman filter to infer unobserved variables and time-varying parameters. -- Dieses Papier untersucht einen besonderen Aspekt bei der Wahl eines Wechselkursregimes von EU Beitrittskandidaten auf dem Weg zu einer Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion. Die Tatsache, dass diese Länder verschiedene Wechselkursregime gewählt haben, deutet auf divergierende Ansichten darüber hin, wie die Wirtschaftspolitik geführt werden soll und insbesondere, wie die Inflation gesenkt werden soll. In diesem Aufsatz werden die Beziehungen zwischen Änderungen in den Wechselkursen und den Preisen in verschiedenen Wechselkursregimen untersucht. Dabei soll herausgefunden werden, welche Rolle Wechselkurse spielen, wenn es darum geht, niedrige Preissteigerungsraten zu realisieren und diese dann auch beizubehalten. Preis- und Wechselkursänderungen werden simultan modelliert unter gleichzeitiger Berücksichtigung der Anpassung an einen Gleichgewichtwechselkurs. Raum-Zustands-Modelle und Kalmanfilter werden verwendet, um auf unbeobachtete Variablen und zeitvariable Parameter schließen zu können.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2001,10.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4156

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