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Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries

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Darvas, Zsolt

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Abstract

This paper studies a particular aspect of the choice of exchange rate regime by EU candidate countries in the run-up to membership of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The fact that these countries have adopted various exchange rate systems reflects a divergence of opinion on the appropriate way to handle macroeconomics and, in particular, to curb inflation. This paper studies the connection between changes in the exchange rate and inflation as perceived in various exchange rate systems in order to draw conclusions with regard to the possible role of exchange rate management in achieving and maintaining low inflation in these countries. To this end we model price and exchange rate changes simultaneously and incorporate adjustment towards the equilibrium real exchange rate. We use a state-space model and the Kalman filter to infer unobserved variables and time-varying parameters. -- Dieses Papier untersucht einen besonderen Aspekt bei der Wahl eines Wechselkursregimes von EU Beitrittskandidaten auf dem Weg zu einer Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion. Die Tatsache, dass diese Länder verschiedene Wechselkursregime gewählt haben, deutet auf divergierende Ansichten darüber hin, wie die Wirtschaftspolitik geführt werden soll und insbesondere, wie die Inflation gesenkt werden soll. In diesem Aufsatz werden die Beziehungen zwischen Änderungen in den Wechselkursen und den Preisen in verschiedenen Wechselkursregimen untersucht. Dabei soll herausgefunden werden, welche Rolle Wechselkurse spielen, wenn es darum geht, niedrige Preissteigerungsraten zu realisieren und diese dann auch beizubehalten. Preis- und Wechselkursänderungen werden simultan modelliert unter gleichzeitiger Berücksichtigung der Anpassung an einen Gleichgewichtwechselkurs. Raum-Zustands-Modelle und Kalmanfilter werden verwendet, um auf unbeobachtete Variablen und zeitvariable Parameter schließen zu können.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2001,10.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4156

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  1. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  2. Balázs Vonnák, 2007. "The Hungarian Monetary Transmission Mechanism: an Assessment," MNB Working Papers 2007/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  3. Tomás Slacík, . "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, 2007. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2005. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies:," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 14, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: Can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  9. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de España Working Papers 0822, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Balazs Egert & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72, May. [Downloadable!]
  12. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade any Importance in the Transmission of Currency Shocks?," Economics Working Papers 028, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  13. Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "Monetary Transmission in three Central European Economies: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 0903, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Lubos Komarek & Martin Melecky, 2005. "The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Working Papers 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  16. Martins Bitans, 2005. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  17. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  18. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  20. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2003. "Exchange rate pass-through to Estonian prices," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2003-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
  21. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  22. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  23. Michael Brandmeier, 2006. "Reasons for Real Appreciation in Central Europe," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 55, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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