This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Fabio M. Natalucci
Federico Ravenna

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines the choice of exchange rate regime in EU candidate countries during the process of accession to the European Monetary Union (EMU). In the presence of real exchange rate appreciation due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, candidate countries face a trade-off between trend appreciation of the nominal exchange rate and high inflation rates. In a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy, we show that under a fixed or heavily managed exchange rate the Balassa-Samuelson effect might prevent compliance with the Maastricht inflation criterion, unless a contractionary policy is adopted. We then discuss how the real exchange rate appreciation shifts the output gap/inflation variance trade-off, increasing the cost of managing or fixing the exchange rate. As a consequence, the requirement of membership in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) and the Maastricht inflation criterion constrain the policy choice while providing no additional benefit to countries credibly committed to joining the Euro. Finally, we show that relaxing either the exchange rate requirement or the inflation criterion has sharply different business cycle implications for the accession countries.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/741/default.htm
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/741/ifdp741.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 741.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:741

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: European Union countries ; Foreign exchange rates ; Economic and Monetary Union;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. György Szapáry, 2000. "Maastricht and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Countries During The Run-Up to EMU," MNB Working Papers 2000/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
    Other versions:
  10. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 01-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Tomás Holub & Martin Cihák, 2001. "Convergence of Relative Prices and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/124, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cedric Tille, 2002. "How valuable is exchange rate flexibility? Optimal monetary policy under sectoral shocks," Staff Reports 147, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Mihály András Kovács & András Simon, 1998. "The components of the real exchange rate in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1998/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  21. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999. [Downloadable!]
  22. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  24. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Analysis for Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Egert, Balazs, 2002. "Estimating the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on inflation and the real exchange rate during the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Modelling transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0402032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  30. Devereux, Michael B & Lane, Philip R., 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. John H. Rogers, 2002. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the United States?," International Finance Discussion Papers 740, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sabina Pogorelec, 2006. "Fiscal and monetary policy in the enlarged European Union," Working Paper Series 655, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marcelo Sánchez, 2006. "Implications of monetary union for catching-up member states," Working Paper Series 630, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bas Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Cindy Moons, 2008. "Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Margarida Duarte, 2003. "The euro and inflation divergence in Europe," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-70. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2007. "The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 1807, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland’s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Van Aarle B. & Garretsen H. & Moons C., 2007. "Accession to the Euro-Area: A Stylized Analysis Using a NK Model," Working Papers 2007015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hanns-Dieter Jacobsen et. al, 2004. "Economic, Political, Institutional as well as Social Risks and Opportunities of EMU Enlargement," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp22, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2004. " Habit Formation and Interest Rate Smoothing," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Zenon Kontolemis & Kevin Ross, 2005. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the New Member States of the European Union," Macroeconomics 0504015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All RePEc services are meant to be be free forever, as they are all run by volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.