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Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the United States?

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John H. Rogers

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Abstract

In light of 50 years of economic policies designed to integrate Europe -- culminating in the elimination of euro zone national currencies in early 2002 -- and a vast academic literature on international economic integration, it is of interest to assess how far European integration has come in practice. Using a unique data set, I document the pattern of price dispersion across European and U.S. cities from 1990 to 2001. I find a striking decline in dispersion for traded goods prices in Europe, most of which took place between 1991 and 1994. The level of traded goods price dispersion in the euro area is now quite close to that of the United States. A decline in dispersion of non-tradeables prices in Europe has also taken place, but to a smaller extent. For U.S. cities, there is no evidence of a decline in price dispersion, even for tradeables. I examine several possible explanations for the decline in European price dispersion, including harmonization of tax rates, convergence of incomes and labor costs, liberalization of trade and factor markets, and increased coherence of monetary policy. I also investigate how much of the variation in national inflation rates in Europe can be explained by price level convergence. Finally, after showing that prices in likely next-round entrants into the euro zone are well below prices in Western Europe, I discuss the potential inflationary consequences of accession into monetary union for Eastern Europe.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 740.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Keywords: Monetary unions ; Inflation (Finance);

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2001. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 2944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H., 2001. "Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 29-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
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  14. Canzoneri, Matthew, et al, 2002. "Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 497-516, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2001. "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 0120, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, 1997. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  20. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Price Convergence in the European Car Market," Working Papers 2005-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabio M. Natalucci & Federico Ravenna, 2002. "The road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 741, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Javier Andrés & Eva Ortega & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Market structure and inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union," Banco de España Working Papers 0301, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philipp Maier, 2005. "A `Global Village' without borders? International price differentials at eBay," DNB Working Papers 044, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carlos J. Rodriguez-Fuentes & Antonio Olivera-Herrera & David Padron-Marrero, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation persistence in the Eurozone," ERSA conference papers ersa04p218, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ester Faia & Alessia Campolmi, 2005. "Inflation Differentials and Different Labor Market Institutions in the EMU," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Riemer P. Faber & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2005. "Price Convergence in Europe from a Macro Perspective: Product Categories and Reliability," DNB Working Papers 034, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Van Poeck A., 2009. "One Money and Fifteen Needs Inflation and Output Convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Riemer P. Faber & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Price convergence in Europe from a macro perspective: Trends and determinants (1960-2003)," DNB Working Papers 012, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Juan Angel Garcia, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Matthias Lutz, 2003. "Price Convergence under EMU? First Estimates," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Thomas Mathä, 2003. "What to Expect of the Euro? Analysing Price Differences of Individual Products in Luxembourg and its Surrounding Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa03p70, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 619, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  17. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Research series 200509-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Alina Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 005221, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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