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Taylor rules in the open economy

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  • Leith, Campbell
  • Wren-Lewis, Simon

Abstract

Taylor rules, which link short-term interest rates to fluctuations in inflation and output, have been shown to be a good guide (both positively and normatively) to the conduct of monetary policy. As a result they have been used extensively to model policy in the context of both closed and open economy models. Their determinacy properties have also been analysed in the context of closed and, to a more limited degree, in small open economy models. In this paper, we extend the analysis of the determinacy properties of Taylor rules to the case of a benchmark two-country model. When the rules are specified in terms of output-price inflation we confirm and extend the conventional results from the closed economy literature--satisfying the Taylor principle is the key to ensuring determinacy, although the presence of backward-looking price-setting can affect the determinacy properties of the two-country model. However, the conventional results do not hold when we replace output-price inflation with consumer price inflation in the specification of the rule. In this case, Taylor rules which satisfy the Taylor principle will be indeterminate, unless there is an unusually large home bias in consumption. Similar indeterminacy problems arise when one country targets CPI inflation and the other output-price inflation. In this case we show that, even if determinacy is achieved, large spillovers may occur between countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 53 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 971-995

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:8:p:971-995

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Keywords: Taylor rules Inflation targeting Interest rate rules;

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Cited by:
  1. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/121, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Stephen McKnight, 2011. "Investment and interest rate policy in the open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 673-699, December.
  3. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Interest Rate Control Rules and Macroeconomic Stability in a Heterogeneous Two-Country Model," MPRA Paper 37017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2008. "Interactions between monetary and fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2854-2882, September.
  5. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  6. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2012. "Do real balance effects invalidate the Taylor principle in closed and open economies?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos 2012-10, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
  7. Teresa Sousa, 2011. "International macroeconomic interdependence and imports of oil in a small open economy," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 35-60, April.

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