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The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Exchange Rate Misalignments

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  • Cambell Leith

    ()

  • Simon Wren-Lewis

    ()

Abstract

A common feature of exchange rate misalignments is that they produce a divergence between traded and non-traded goods sectors, which appears to pose a dilemma for policy makers. In this paper we develop a small open economy model which features traded and non-traded goods sectors with which to assess the extent to which monetary policy should respond to exchange rate misalignments. To do so we initially contrast the efficient outcome of the model with that under flexible prices and find that the flex price equilibrium exhibits an excessive exchange rate appreciation in the face of a positive UIP shock. By introducing sticky prices in both sectors we provide a role for policy in the face of UIP shocks. We then derive a quadratic approximation to welfare which comprises quadratic terms in the output gaps in both sectors as well as sectoral rates of inflation. These can be rewritten in terms of the usual aggregate variables, but only after including terms in relative sectoral prices and/or the terms of trade to capture the sectoral composition of aggregates. We derive optimal policy analytically before giving numerical examples of the optimal response to UIP shocks. Finally, we contrast the optimal policy with a number of alternative policy stances and assess the robustness of results to changes in model parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0605.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0605

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  1. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  2. Giancarlo CORSETTI & Luca DEDOLA & Sylvain LEDUC, 2003. "International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/22, European University Institute.
  3. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal fiscal policy in a monetary union," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "Should Central Banks Target Consumer Prices or the Exchange Rate?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F208-F231, 06.
  5. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-lewis, 2006. "The Costs of Fiscal Inflexibility," WEF Working Papers 0005, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  6. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
  8. Jian Wang, 2007. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Working Papers 0701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2002. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2007. "A Sectoral Analysis of Price-Setting Behavior in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 335-342, May.
  11. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  12. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
  14. Robert Kollmann, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects of welfare and business cycles," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7628, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Nooman Rebei & Eva Ortega, 2005. "A Two Sector Small Open Economy Model. Which Inflation to Target?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 298, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Benigno, Gianluca & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008. "Consumption and real exchange rates with incomplete markets and non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 926-948, October.
  18. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "The Costs of Fiscal Inflexibility - Extended," Working Papers 2005_23, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  19. Riccardo Cristadoro & Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Nominal Rigidities in an Estimated Two Country," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 162, Society for Computational Economics.
  20. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 8604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Charles Engel, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," NBER Working Papers 14829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Povoledo, Laura, 2009. "The Volatility of the Tradeable and Nontradeable Sectors: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 14852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2009.
  3. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2009. "Taylor rules in the open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 971-995, November.
  4. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," NIPE Working Papers 26/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Adriana Soares Sales & João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2012. "Coping with a Complex Global Environment: a Brazilian perspective on emerging market issues," Working Papers Series 292, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.

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