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Assessing Monetary Rules Performance across EMU Countries

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  • Carlo Altavilla

    ()
    (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

Abstract

The topic covered in this paper is the performance of different monetary policy rules thought to be used as a guideline in practical policymaking. In this respect, different rules are estimated using alternative econometrics techniques. A comparative analysis based on the ability of the rules in capturing the historical central banks' behaviour and on the volatility on the output, inflation and interest rate changes that they imply is performed. The study is conducted on the EMU countries. The results suggest that the simple rules perform quite well and that the gains obtained from adopting an optimal control-based rule are not so large. Moreover the addition of a forward-looking dimension and of an interest rate smoothing term in the reaction function seems to improve the performance of the rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics in its series International Economics Working Papers Series with number ces0108.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:ces0108

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Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Monetary Rule; ECB;

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References

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  1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
  5. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  7. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  9. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 7916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
  12. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  14. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Rules: Conceptual Issues and Practical Considerations," NBER Working Papers 6306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. John B. Taylor, 1994. "The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 21-24.
  20. Carlo Altavilla, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Assymmetries across EMU Countries," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces0022, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  21. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Ugo Marani & Carlo Altavilla, 1999. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank and the Euro-US Dollar Exchange Rate," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces9923, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  23. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
  2. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Open Economy," Discussion Papers 0203, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  3. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty. Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CSEF Working Papers 231, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Ho-Chuan Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 449-464.
  5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
  6. Eleftheriou, Maria & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 0659, European Central Bank.
  7. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  8. Juha Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Jouko Vilmunen, 2007. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 113, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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