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Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules

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  • James B. Bullard
  • Aarti Singh

Abstract

We study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. Each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule. We show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium depends on the joint behavior of policymakers worldwide. We also show how indeterminacy exposes all economies to endogenous volatility, even ones where monetary policy may be judged appropriate from a closed economy perspective. We construct and discuss two quantitative cases. In the 1970s, worldwide equilibrium was characterized by a two-dimensional indeterminacy, despite U.S. adherence to a version of the Taylor principle. In the last 15 years, worldwide equilibrium was still characterized by a one-dimensional indeterminacy, leaving all economies exposed to endogenous volatility. Our analysis provides a rationale for a type of international policy coordination, and the gains to coordination in the sense of avoiding indeterminacy may be large.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-040.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-040

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Keywords: Keynesian economics ; Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance);

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blake, Andrew P & Markovic, Bojan, 2008. "The conduct of global monetary policy and domestic stability," Bank of England working papers 353, Bank of England.
  2. Jarkko Jääskelä & Mariano Kulish, 2007. "The Butterfly Effect of Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland.
  4. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
  5. Enrique Martínez-García & Diego Vilán & Mark Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  7. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Luis-Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, 08.
  9. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/121, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hirose, Yasuo, 2010. "Monetary policy and sunspot fluctuation in the U.S. and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 33693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
  12. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.
  13. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.

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