Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries
AbstractThe paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.
Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 221 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.economiacivile.it
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Business, and Aid
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997.
"Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime,"
97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
- Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001.
"Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries,"
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 11 edited by Morten Balling, March.
- Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Clemens Grafe & Willem Buiter, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
- Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe,"
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
- De Grauwe, Paul & schnabl, G, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/121338, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2003.
"De jure versus de facto: Exchange rate stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe,"
269, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
- Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404013, EconWPA.
- Leon Podkaminer, 2003. "Analytical notes on the Balassa-Samuelson effect," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 207-221.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Patching up the Pact: some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003.
- Leon Podkaminer, 2003. "Analytical notes on the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 207-221.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlo D'Ippoliti).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.