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Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries

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  • Willem H. Buiter

    ()
    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London (Great Britain))

  • Clemens Grafe

    ()
    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London (Great Britain))

Abstract

The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 221 ()
Pages: 111-142

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Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2002:21

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Keywords: EMU; Exchange Rates;

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References

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  1. Clemens Grafe & Willem Buiter, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
  2. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
  3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  5. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
  7. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003.
  2. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How Far, How Fast?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp279, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Patching up the Pact: some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  6. Leon Podkaminer, 2003. "Analytical notes on the Balassa-Samuelson effect," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 207-221.
  7. Ralph Setzer & Ansgar Belke, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour l’euroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
  8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404013, EconWPA.

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