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Ancorare, fluttuare o abbandonare la nave:i regimi valutari dei paesi candidati all' Unione Europea

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Author Info

  • Willem H. Buiter

    ()
    (Banca Europea per la Ricostruzione e lo Sviluppo, Londra (Gran Bretagna))

  • Clemens Grafe

    ()
    (Banca Europea per la Ricostruzione e lo Sviluppo, Londra (Gran Bretagna))

Abstract

The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East European accession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. The exchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERM II membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERM II membership for the accession countries would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

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File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/view/9788/9673
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economia civile in its journal Moneta e Credito.

Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 218 ()
Pages: 127-164

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Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2002:22

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; EU; Exchange Rates;

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References

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  1. Clemens Grafe & Willem Buiter, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
  2. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
  4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  6. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
  7. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
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