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Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries

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  • Morten Balling
    ()

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Author Info

  • Willem H. Buiter
  • Clemens Grafe

Abstract

The subject matter of this paper is the design of appropriate Central Banking arrangements and exchange rate regimes for those former centrally planned Central and East European countries that are candidates for full membership in the European Union. We give an overview of the existing arrangements and point out to which extent monetary arrangements are restricted by conditions for entry both into the European Union and eventually into the European Monetary Union. Furthermore we investigate to which degree countries are fulfilling the accession criteria and compare their performance with the performance of earlier EU joiners like the countries of the Iberian Peninsula, Ireland and Greece. After concluding that the accession criteria do not necessarily favour a particular monetary regime, we analyse the pros and cons of the two regimes widely believed to be most stable- currency boards and inflation targeting. We find that under either regime tensions are likely to arise from the attempt to meet the accession criteria of a low inflation rate and a stable exchange rate. Due to likely large productivity gains in the traded goods sector the real exchange rate can be expected to display a trend real appreciation. Thus a currency board arrangement may well fail to produce an inflation rate below the Maastricht ceiling, unless the economy is run with a wasteful amount of spare capacity. Similarly the credibility of any inflation target would be undermined by the requirement that the exchange rate be kept within a specified target zone. This conflict could be resolved if the inflation ceiling was re-specified in terms of traded goods price inflation (and preferable in terms of ' core' traded goods price inflation) but this would require a change in the Maastricht Treaty.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series SUERF Studies with number 11 and published in 2001.

ISBN: 978-3-902109-03-3
Handle: RePEc:erf:erfstu:11

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Related research

Keywords: Central Banks and their policies; Monetary policy; Financial integration; International monetary arrangements and institutions;

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References

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  1. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Internal Versus External Convertibility and Developing-Country FinancialCrises: Lessons from the Argentine Bank Bailout of the 1930's," NBER Working Papers 7386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "The Economic Case for Monetary Union in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 10-35, Supplemen.
  6. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Internal Versus External Convertibility and Developing-Country Financial," Macroeconomics 0004002, EconWPA.
  7. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Sachs, Jeffrey & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Anne Marie Gulde & Juha Kähkönen & Peter Keller, 2000. "Pros and Cons of Currency Board Arrangements in the Lead-Up to EU Accession and Participation in the Euro Zone," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/1, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  15. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  16. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  17. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
  19. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
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  21. Stanley Fischer, 1994. "Russia and the Soviet Union Then and Now," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, pages 221-258 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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