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Macromodel estimations for the Romanian "pre-accession economic programme

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

Abstract

The new (2002) version"" of the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous 2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian economy. Obviously, there are numerous questions that should be analysed from this perspective. The paper is covering three groups of issues. The first chapter attempts to define some reference points, which have to be considered during the updating of the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme". The contents and the main functional characteristics of the macromodel used in the simulations for this purpose are examined in the second chapter. The third chapter discusses the computational hypotheses and presents the numerical estimations for two scenarios, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2002-2005. Some concluding remarks close this explorative study.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35793.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Supplement 1.1(2002): pp. 5-38
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35793

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Keywords: macromodel; forecasting;

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  1. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2001. "Updated scenarios for the Romanian economy medium-term dynamics," MPRA Paper 35792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  5. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  6. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  7. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
  8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ghizdeanu, Ion & Tudorescu, Veronica, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 57-64, March.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Economia Romaniei in perioada 2003-2010: Estimari de macromodel
    [Romanian economy during 2003-2010: Macromodel estimations]
    ," MPRA Paper 35768, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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