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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

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Author Info
Balázs Égert,
László Halpern ()
Ronald MacDonald ()

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Abstract

In this paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings; differences in the econometric estimation techniques; and differences relating to the time series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three-dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp793.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-793

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Related research
Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate Purchasing Power Parity trend appreciation Balassa-Samuelson effect productivity inflation differential tradable prices regulated prices Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate NATREX CHEER transitional economies euro.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Balázs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Heather D. Gibson & Jim Malley, 2007. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greee," Working Papers 63, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 221-243, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. John Lewis, 2007. "Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria during a Period of Nominal Convergence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp866, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2008. "Structural breaks and Purchasing Power Parity in the CEE and Post-War former Yugoslav States," EFZG Working Papers Series 0804, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb. [Downloadable!]
  8. José García-Solanes & Francisco I. Sancho-Portero & Fernando Torrejón-Flores, 2007. "Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  9. Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, 2007. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Omar AlShehabi & Shuang Ding, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 08/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jan Filácek & Roman Horváth & Michal Skorepa, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp853, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?," Working Papers 2007/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hillinger, Claude, 2008. "Measuring Real Value and Inflation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(20). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Bogoev, Jane & Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija & Égert, Balázs & Petrovska, Magdalena, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Macedonia: Old Wisdoms and New Insights," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(18). [Downloadable!]
  15. Sarah M. Lein-Rupprecht & Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Carolin Nerlich, 2007. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Working Paper Series 827, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Anna Naszódi, 2008. "Are the exchange rates of EMU candidate countries anchored by their expected euro locking rates?," MNB Working Papers 2008/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  17. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Garciìa Solanes, José & Torrejón Flores, Fernando, 2008. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  20. Razzak, W A, 2007. "In The Middle of the Heat:The GCC countries Between Rising Oil Prices and the Sliding Greenback," MPRA Paper 6591, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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