Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries
AbstractThe Paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the 10 East European accession candidates, both prior to EU accession and during the period following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible, preferably at the same time as EU membership. The prevailing interpretation of the exchange rate criterion for EMU membership is that it requires two years of successful membership in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). If ERM membership presupposes EU membership, this would postpone the earliest possible date for EMU membership till two years after EU membership. Unrestricted financial capital mobility would be required during this period. We argue that a stay of two years or more in this ‘ERM purgatory’ would be pointless and costly. A derogation or waiver of the exchange rate requirement would therefore be desirable. Any credible fixed exchange rate regime prior to EMU membership would risk running afoul of the inflation criterion for EMU membership because of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. A temporary recession might be required to crawl under the inflation hurdle. To avoid this, a derogation from the inflation criterion for EMU membership, or a re-interpretation in terms of the inflation rate for traded goods prices only, is recommended. The use of the euro as a formal parallel currency in accession countries prior to EMU membership (or even prior to EU membership) deserves serious consideration. This would not require a derogation from any of the Treaty requirements.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3184.
Date of creation: Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2003-03-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2003-03-14 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "The Economic Case for Monetary Union in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 10-35, Supplemen.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991.
"Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe From the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
3855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Poole, William, 1970.
"Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press,
MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
- William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R., 1995.
"Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-274, February.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Fiscal Flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for Monetary Union in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000.
"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
7618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
- ZoltÃ¡n M. Jakab & MihÃ¡ly AndrÃ¡s KovÃ¡cs, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Willem H. Buiter, 1981.
"The Superiority of Contingent Rules over Fixed Rules in Models with Rational Expectations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "The Superiority of Contingent Rules over Fixed Rules in Models with Rational Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 647-70, September.
- Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997.
"Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime,"
Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.