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A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries

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  • Korhonen, Iikka
  • Wachtel, Paul

Abstract

We assess the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We do this in the framework of vector autoregressive regressions, utilising impulse functions and variance decompositions with monthly data that starts in 1999 in order to avoid periods of very high inflation and the Russian crisis. We find that exchange rate movements have a clear impact on price developments in the CIS countries. The speed of the pass-through is also fairly high: in most cases the full effect is transmitted into domestic prices in less than 12 months. Unlike in many other emerging market economies, an additional effect from US prices on to domestic prices is not significant. The extent of the exchange rate pass-through is usually much higher than in our benchmark group of emerging market countries. Variance decomposition shows that the relative share of exchange rates in explaining changes in domestic prices is higher in the CIS countries than in the benchmark group. Our results indicate that policy-makers in the CIS countries need to pay more attention to exchange rate movements than in many other emerging market countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 215-226

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Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:215-226

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References

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  1. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  4. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Working Paper / FINESS 5.6, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Pelinescu, Elena, 2012. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Romania. Insights into the Economic Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, September.
  3. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
  4. Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, 2007. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Ara Volkan & Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2007/6, Turkish Economic Association, revised Aug 2007.
  6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2008. "Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 61-74, March.
  7. Victoria V. Dobrynskaya, 2008. "The Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of the Central Bank of Russia under Asymmetrical Price Rigidity," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 29-62.
  8. Dabrowski , Marek, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes in CIS economies and their ability to provide price and financial stability," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  9. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States," Working Paper Series 1120, European Central Bank.
  11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Jimborean, R., 2011. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the New EU Member States," Working papers 341, Banque de France.
  14. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "A threshold vector autoregression model of exchange rate pass-through in Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 24-33.
  15. Roland Beck & Geoff Barnard, 2009. "Towards a Flexible Exchange Rate Policy in Russia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 744, OECD Publishing.
  16. Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.

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