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Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis

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  • Hui Liu

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Gabriel Rodriguez

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

Abstract

Do human activities indeed cause global warming? This paper attempts to answer this question by reexamining the time series properties of climate variables and the existence of long-run relationships between them. Double unit root testing shows that most of the radiative forcings of greenhouse gases are integrated of order two. We then apply an I(1) and I(2) cointegrating rank analysis to identify the presence of I(2) components. After identifying a linear combination of I(2) variables that cointegrates to an I(1) process, we proceed with the I(1) cointegrating analysis and we identify two possible cases with different rank specifications. Estimation of the equation for temperature suggests that this variable reacts significantly to the radiative forcings of greenhouse gases in the long-run. This evidence allow us to conclude that human activities affect temperature variations.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/eco/pdf/cahiers/0702E-old.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Ottawa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0307E.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0307e

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Keywords: Global Warming; Radiative Forcing; Cointegration; I(1) and I(2) Processes; Unit Roots.;

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Cited by:
  1. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Torben Schmith & Søren Johansen & Peter Thejll, 2011. "Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods," Discussion Papers 11-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. David I. Stern, 2005. "A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0510, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.

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