Why U.S. Money does not Cause U.S. Output, but does Cause Hong Kong Output
AbstractStandard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe and Yetman (2000), if there is a (say) 6 quarter lag in the effect of money on output, then U.S. output will be unforecastable from any information set available to the Fed lagged 6 quarters. But if other countries, for example Hong Kong, have currencies that are fixed to the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong monetary policy will then be chosen in Washington D.C., with no concern for smoothing Hong Kong output. Econometric causality tests of U.S. money on Hong Kong output will then show evidence of causality. We test this empirically. Our empirical analysis also provides a measure of the degree to which macroeconomic stabilisation is sacrificed by adopting a fixed exchange rate rather than an independent monetary policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 01-07.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 19 May 1999
Date of revision: Nov 2007
Publication status: Published: Revised version in Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 26, No. 7 (November 2007), pp. 1174–1186
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Other versions of this item:
- Rodriguez, Gabriel & Rowe, Nicholas, 2007. "Why U.S. money does not cause U.S. output, but does cause Hong Kong output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1174-1186, November.
- Gabriel Rodriguez & Nicholas Rowe, 2002. "Why U.S. Money does not Cause U.S. Output, but does Cause Hong Kong Output," Working Papers 0201E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-02-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2002-02-15 (International Finance)
- NEP-PKE-2002-02-15 (Post Keynesian Economics)
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