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Is U.S. Money Causing China'S Output?

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  • Johansson, Anders C.

    (China Economic Research Center)

Abstract

This paper tries to answer the long-standing question of whether money causes output. Instead of focusing on domestic monetary policy and output, we analyze U.S. monetary policy and its possible effects on real output in China. Our results indicate that the main monetary instrument in the U.S., the Federal Fund Rate, Granger causes China’s output. A second monetary variable, U.S. money supply, does not seem to have a significant effect on China’s output. The results are supported by variance decompositions, which indicate that Federal Fund Rate shocks have an effect on China’s real output. The findings have important implications for policy makers in China that focus on maintaining a high and stable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "Is U.S. Money Causing China'S Output?," Working Paper Series 2009-6, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center, revised 15 May 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-006
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    Cited by:

    1. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Asian sovereign debt and country risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 335-350, September.
    2. Anders C. Johansson, 2012. "China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 816-837, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; United States; Monetary policy; Output; Causality; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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