This paper tries to answer the long-standing question of whether money causes output. Instead of focusing on domestic monetary policy and output, we analyze U.S. monetary policy and its possible effects on real output in China. Our results indicate that the main monetary instrument in the U.S., the Federal Fund Rate, Granger causes China’s output. A second monetary variable, U.S. money supply, does not seem to have a significant effect on China’s output. The results are supported by variance decompositions, which indicate that Federal Fund Rate shocks have an effect on China’s real output. The findings have important implications for policy makers in China that focus on maintaining a high and stable economic growth.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number
2009-6.
Length: 28 pages Date of creation: 15 Mar 2009 Date of revision:
15 May 2009 Publication status: Forthcoming in China Economic Review. Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-006
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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