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Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons

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  • Ahmed M. Khalid

    ()
    (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 119260)

  • Teo Wee Guan

    ()
    (Ministry of Community Development, 512, Thomson Road, MCD Building, Singapore 298136)

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    Abstract

    This study attempts to determine the causal relationship between budget and current account deficits as well as the direction of such causality. A selected sample of some developed and developing countries with annual time series data is used and cointegration techniques are applied to bring evidence regarding this important issue. Our results do not support any long-run relationship between the two deficits for developed countries while the data for developing countries do not reject such a relationship. However, our results suggest a causal relationship between the two deficits for most of the sample countries.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 389-402

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:24:y:1999:i:3:p:389-402

    Note: received: November 1996/final version received: September 1998
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    Related research

    Keywords: Twin deficits · cointegration · Granger causality · developed vs. developing countries;

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    Cited by:
    1. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    2. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    4. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824.
    6. Victor Scalet Viegas Alves & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva & Denílson Torcate Lopes, 2011. "Déficit Em Conta Corrente, Poupançaexterna E Gasto Público No Brasil: Uma Análise Empírica," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 063, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fat�s & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    8. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577–592.
    9. Rodriguez, Gabriel & Rowe, Nicholas, 2007. "Why U.S. money does not cause U.S. output, but does cause Hong Kong output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1174-1186, November.
    10. Lau, E. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2006. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    11. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    12. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    13. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, EconWPA.
    14. Puah, Chin-Hong & Lau, Evan & Tan, Kim Lee, 2006. "Budget-current account deficits nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 37677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ali Salman Saleh, 2006. "Long-Run Linkage Between Budget Deficit And Trade Deficit In Lebanon: Results From The Uecm And Bounds Tests," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 29-48, December.
    16. Szilágyi, Katalin, 2006. "Újraosztó fiskális politika nyitott gazdaságban
      [Redistributive fiscal policy in an open economy]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 330-348.
    17. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.

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