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Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis

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  • Liu, Hui
  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

Abstract

Using econometric tools for selecting I(1) and I(2) trends, we found the existence of static long-run steady-state and dynamic long-run steady-state relations between temperature and radiative forcing of solar irradiance and a set of three greenhouse gases series. Estimates of the adjustment coefficients indicate that temperature series is error correcting around 5-65% of the disequilibria each year, depending on the type of long-run relation. The estimates of the I(1) and I(2) trends indicate that they are driven by linear combinations of the three greenhouse gases and their loadings indicate strong impact on the temperature series. The equilibrium temperature change for a doubling of carbon dioxide is between 2.15 and 3.4 C, which is in agreement with past literature and the report of the IPCC in 2001 using 15 different general circulation models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9939.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9939

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Keywords: Global warming; Radiative forcing; Cointegration; I(1) process; I(2) process; Unit roots;

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Cited by:
  1. Torben Schmith & Søren Johansen & Peter Thejll, 2011. "Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods," Discussion Papers 11-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. David I. Stern, 2005. "A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics 0510, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  3. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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