Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis
AbstractUsing econometric tools for selecting I(1) and I(2) trends, we found the existence of static long-run steady-state and dynamic long-run steady-state relations between temperature and radiative forcing of solar irradiance and a set of three greenhouse gases series. Estimates of the adjustment coefficients indicate that temperature series is error correcting around 5-65% of the disequilibria each year, depending on the type of long-run relation. The estimates of the I(1) and I(2) trends indicate that they are driven by linear combinations of the three greenhouse gases and their loadings indicate strong impact on the temperature series. The equilibrium temperature change for a doubling of carbon dioxide is between 2.15 and 3.4 C, which is in agreement with past literature and the report of the IPCC in 2001 using 15 different general circulation models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9939.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Global warming; Radiative forcing; Cointegration; I(1) process; I(2) process; Unit roots;
Other versions of this item:
- Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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