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Exchange Rate Pass-Through:Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions

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  • An, Lian
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Abstract

Abstract: This paper provides cross-country and time-series evidence on the extent of exchange rate pass-through at different stages of distribution - import prices, producer prices and consumer prices - for eight major industrial countries: United States, Japan, Canada, Italy, UK, Finland, Sweden and Spain. The analysis is based on a vector autoregreesion (VAR) model that includes the distribution chain of pricing. Instead of the conventional choleski decomposition as used in the literature, I propose to identify the exchange rate shock by the more recent sign restriction approach. For the first time in the literature, estimates of pass-through based on the sign restriction procedure are provided. I find exchange rate pass-through incomplete in many horizons, though complete pass-through is observed occasionally. The degree of pass-through declines and time needed for complete pass-through lengthens along the distribution chain. Furthermore, I find that a greater pass-through coefficient is associated with an economy that is smaller in size with higher import shares, more persistent and less volatile exchange rates, more volatile monetary shocks, higher inflation rate, and less volatile GDP.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 527.

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Date of creation: 24 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:527

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Keywords: Keywords: pass-through; vector autoregression; sign restrictions; exchange rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Ren�e Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-60, December.
  2. Herger Nils, 2013. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Working Papers 13.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  3. Rajmund Mirdala, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1070, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Cozmanca,Bogdan-Octavian & Manea, Florentina, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through into Romanian price indices. A VAR approach," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar, Institute for Economic Forecasting 092102, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  5. Sek, Siok Kun & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through and volatility: Impacts on domestic prices in four Asian countries," MPRA Paper 11130, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2008.
  6. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
  7. García-Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2010. "Devaluation and pass-through in indebted and risky economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 36-45, January.
  8. Naa Akofio-Sowah, 2009. "Is There a Link Between Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Monetary Regime: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 296-309, August.
  9. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Carlos Cortinhas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Asean: Implications For The Prospects Of Monetary Integration In The Region," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(04), pages 657-687.

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