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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Michele Ca’ Zorzi
Elke Hahn
Marcelo Sánchez

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Abstract

This paper examines the degree of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) to prices in 12 emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. The results, based on three alternative vector autoregressive models, partly overturn the conventional wisdom that ERPT into both import and consumer prices is always higher in ‘emerging’ than in ‘developed’ countries. For emerging markets with only one digit inflation (most notably the Asian countries), pass-through to import and consumer prices is found to be low and not very dissimilar from the levels of developed economies. The paper also finds robust evidence for a positive relationship between the degree of the ERPT and inflation, in line with Taylor’s hypothesis once two outlier countries—Argentina and Turkey— are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of a positive link between import openness and ERPT, while plausible theoretically, finds only weak empirical support.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Icfai Press in its journal The Icfai University Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): V (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 84-102
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Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjmo:v:05:y:2007:i:4:p:84-102

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S & González Mìnguez, Jose Manuel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Why do Consumer Prices React Less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
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  6. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
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  14. repec:rus:hseeco:122183 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Favero, Carlo A. & Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "Applied Macroeconometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Elke Hahn, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tomás Slacík, . "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, 2007. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Luis Carranza & José Enrique Galdón Sánchez & Javier Gómez Biscarri, . "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Faculty Working Papers 01/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de España Working Papers 0822, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roberto Álvarez & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 465, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates - do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bogdan Cozmanca & Florentina Manea, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Romanian Price Indices: A VAR Approach," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 34, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation," Working Paper Series 567, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  11. Przystupa, Jan & Wróbel, Ewa, 2009. "Asymmetry of the exchange rate pass-through: An exercise on the Polish data," MPRA Paper 17660, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marcelo Sánchez, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Short- and long-run tax elasticities - the case of the Netherlands," Working Paper Series 763, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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