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DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through

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Author Info
Corsetti, Giancarlo
Dedola, Luca
Leduc, Sylvain

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Abstract

This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, open-economy model which endogenously generates high exchange rate volatility, whereas a low degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) stems from both nominal rigidities (in the form of local currency pricing) and price discrimination. We model real exchange rate volatility in response to real shocks by reconsidering and extending two approaches suggested by the quantitative literature (one by Backus Kehoe and Kydland [1995], the other by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan [2003]), within a common framework with incomplete markets and segmented domestic economies. We show that, in our framework, both approaches are successful in generating volatility without any need for nominal shocks, and without suffering from shortcomings such as a fall in import volatility. Our model accounts for a variable degree of ERPT over different horizons. In the short run, we find that a very small amount of nominal rigidities --- consistent with the evidence in Bils and Klenow [2004] --- lowers the elasticity of import prices at border and consumer level to 27% and 13%, respectively. Still, exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade -- in accord with the evidence stressed by Obstfeld and Rogoff [2000]. In the long run, ERPT coefficients are also below one, as a result of price discrimination. We run a set of regressions adopted by the empirical literature on ERPT, typically plagued by omitted variable bias and measurement errors, on the time series generated by our model. The ERPT estimates are biased, although in most cases reasonable; most regressions can detect differences between short-run and long-run ERPT. We show that the quality of empirical proxies for marginal costs and demand typically vary depending on the shocks (real vs. nominal) hitting the economy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5377.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5377

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Related research
Keywords: DSGE models; exchange rate volatility; international business cycle; international transmission; pass-through;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  2. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2001. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 2944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
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  5. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, . "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 01/38, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
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  23. Charles Engel, 2006. "Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(6), pages 1249-1260, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Robert Anderton & Filippo di Mauro & Fabio Moneta, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area - trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Robert Anderton, 2003. "Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 219, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erceg, Christopher & Guerriei, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 813, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christopher Gust & Nathan Sheets, 2007. "The adjustment of global external imbalances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 850, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in new Member States and candidate countries of the EU," Banco de España Working Papers 0822, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christoph Thoenissen, 2008. " Exchange rate dynamics, asset market structure and the role of the trade elasticity," CDMA Working Paper Series 0803, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2007. "A framework for identifying the sources of local currency price stability with an empirical application," Staff Reports 287, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2006. "S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/36, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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