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An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area

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  • Smets, Frank
  • Wouters, Raf

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (SDGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macro-economic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, the paper also analyses the output (real interest rate) gap, defined as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate). JEL Classification: E4, E5

Suggested Citation

  • Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002171
    Note: 58657
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp171.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; monetary policy; SDGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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