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Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence

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Edward Nelson

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Abstract

Meltzer (1999a) shows that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption growth in the United States, controlling for the short-term real interest rate. In this paper, it is shown that the same property of base money holds for total output (relative to trend or potential) in both the United States and the United Kingdom. The standard optimising IS-LM model cannot account for this result, but it is shown that it can once the long-term nominal interest rate is included in the money demand function. Because the long-term real rate matters for aggregate demand, the presence of the long-term nominal rate in the money demand function increases the effect of nominal money stock changes on real aggregate demand when prices are sticky.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 122.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:122

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  1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, . "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  5. Miguel Casares & Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Framework with Endogenous Investment," NBER Working Papers 7908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 458, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  11. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Allan H. Meltzer, 1999. "Commentary : monetary policy at zero inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-276. [Downloadable!]
  13. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
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  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
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  15. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2000. "The domestic adjusted monetary base," Working Papers 2000-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  21. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  23. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
  24. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
  25. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Koenig, Evan F, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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