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Direct Effects of Base Money on Aggregate Demand: Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Nelson, Edward

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Abstract

Meltzer (1999a) shows that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption growth in the United States, controlling for the short-term real interest rate. In this paper, I show that the same property of base money holds for total output (relative to trend or potential) in both the United States and the United Kingdom. The standard optimizing IS-LM model cannot account for this result, but I show that it can once the long-term nominal interest rate is included in the money demand function. Because the long-term real rate matters for aggregate demand, the presence of the long-term nominal rate in the money demand function increases the effect of nominal money stock changes on real aggregate demand when prices are sticky.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2666.

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Date of creation: Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2666

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Base; Monetary Policy Rules; Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Money and Interest Rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, . "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  3. Miguel Casares & Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Framework with Endogenous Investment," NBER Working Papers 7908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Allan H. Meltzer, 1999. "Commentary : monetary policy at zero inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-276. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  13. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
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  14. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Goodfriend, Marvin, 2000. "Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1007-35, November.
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  16. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  17. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
  18. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Koenig, Evan F, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 458, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  24. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2000. "The domestic adjusted monetary base," Working Papers 2000-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  25. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
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