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Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models

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Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

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Abstract

Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. This paper develops and explores policy analysis approaches that are either based on a generalized shock structure for the DSGE model or the explicit modelling of deviations from cross-equation restrictions. Using post-1982 U.S. data we first quantify the degree of misspecification in a state-of-the-art DSGE model and then document the performance of different interest-rate feedback rules. We find that many of the policy prescriptions derived from the benchmark DSGE model are robust to the various treatments of misspecifications considered in this paper, but that quantitatively the cost of deviating from such prescriptions varies substantially.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13099.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13099

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering The Hit-List For Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-24, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Matthias Mohr, 2005. "A Trend-Cycle(-Season) Filter," Econometrics 0508004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Policy predictions if the model doesn’t fit," Working Paper 2004-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Schorfheide, Frank, 2006. "Boosting Your Instruments: Estimation with Overidentifying Inequality Moment Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in a small open-economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile," Staff Reports 329, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Fanelli, Luca, 2007. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-based learning," MPRA Paper 1616, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Katrin Tinn, 2005. "Optimal research in financial markets with heterogeneous private information a rational expectations model," Working Paper Series 493, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2006. "International Evidence on the Efficacy of new-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 0602, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney Newey & Geert Ridder, 2006. "Mean-squared-error Calculations for Average Treatment Effects," IEPR Working Papers 06.57, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
  10. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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