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The New OECD International Trade Model

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Author Info

  • Nigel Pain
  • Annabelle Mourougane
  • Franck Sédillot
  • Laurence Le Fouler

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook. Le nouveau modèle du commerce international de l'OCDE Cette étude présente de façon détaillée la respecification et la réestimation des équations de commerce extérieur (prix et volumes) qui sont utilisées par le Département des Affaires Économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser les développements du commerce mondial. L'impact des facteurs influençant la performance à l'exportation, le taux de pénétration des importations et l'effet du taux de change sur les prix du commerce extérieur des zones OCDE et non OCDE est estimé par le biais de données de panel. Le model présenté a déjà été mis en oeuvre avec succès pour assurer la cohérence globale des prévisions des flux commerciaux publiées dans les Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/680050777016
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 440.

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Date of creation: 10 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:440-en

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Related research

Keywords: forecasting model; international trade volumes; international trade prices; prix du commerce extérieur; volumes du commerce extérieur; modèle de prévision;

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Cited by:
  1. Anderton, Robert & Tewolde, Tadios, 2011. "The global financial crisis: trying to understand the global trade downturn and recovery," Working Paper Series 1370, European Central Bank.
  2. Dieppe, Alistair & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0760, European Central Bank.
  3. Matthias Burgert & Stephane Dees, 2009. "Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 385-402, July.
  4. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," Post-Print halshs-00435836, HAL.
  5. Myriam Morin & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2014. "An Update of the OECD International Trade Equations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1129, OECD Publishing.
  6. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Imbalances a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 31-74.
  7. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
    [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
    ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  9. Kamath, Kishore & Paul, Varun, 2011. "Understanding recent developments in UK external trade," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(4), pages 294-304.
  10. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
  11. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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