The New OECD International Trade Model

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The New OECD International Trade Model

Author Info

Nigel Pain
Annabelle Mourougane
Franck Sédillot
Laurence Le Fouler ()

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Abstract

This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook.

Le nouveau modèle du commerce international de l'OCDE
Cette étude présente de façon détaillée la respecification et la réestimation des équations de commerce extérieur (prix et volumes) qui sont utilisées par le Département des Affaires Économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser les développements du commerce mondial. L'impact des facteurs influençant la performance à l'exportation, le taux de pénétration des importations et l'effet du taux de change sur les prix du commerce extérieur des zones OCDE et non OCDE est estimé par le biais de données de panel. Le model présenté a déjà été mis en oeuvre avec succès pour assurer la cohérence globale des prévisions des flux commerciaux publiées dans les Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 440.

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Date of creation: 10 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:440-en

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-10-15 (All new papers)
NEP-FOR-2005-10-15 (Forecasting)
NEP-INT-2005-10-15 (International Trade)

Cited by:
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Alistair Dieppe & Thomas Warmedinger, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Stéphane Dées & Matthias Burgert, 2008. "Forecasting world trade. Direct versus "bottom-up" approaches," Working Paper Series 882, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-17.

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