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What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran

    (Faculty of Economics and Centre for International Macroeconomics and Finance (CIMF), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK)

  • L. Vanessa Smith

    (Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy (CFAP), Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK)

  • Ron P. Smith

    (Birkbeck College, London, UK)

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as those of the euro area. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realizations of variables of interest (e.g. UK and euro area output and prices) subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period and the alternative realizations without the restrictions. The robustness of the results can be evaluated by also conditioning on variables deemed to be invariant to UK entry, such as oil or US equity prices. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. In this paper this is accomplished using the Global VAR recently developed by Dees et al. (J. Appl. Econometrics, 2007, forthcoming). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979-2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about when and how the UK entered and the observed global shocks and compares them with the effects of Swedish entry. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.312
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 55-87

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:1:p:55-87

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  1. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, 09.
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