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The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK

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  • Holly, Sean
  • Hashem Pesaran, M.
  • Yamagata, Takashi

Abstract

This paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system. We use changes in real house prices within the UK economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use. Adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect. Shocks to a dominant region - London - are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions. They in turn impact on other regions with a delay. We allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region. London in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to New York and other financial centers. It is shown that New York house prices have a direct effect on London house prices. We analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio-temporal impulse responses. These highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time (as with the conventional impulse responses) and over space.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 2-23

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Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:69:y:2011:i:1:p:2-23

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

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Keywords: House prices Cross sectional dependence Spatial dependence;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gauvin, Laetitia & Vignes, Annick & Nadal, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "Modeling urban housing market dynamics: Can the socio-spatial segregation preserve some social diversity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1300-1321.
  2. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
  3. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
  4. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26.
  5. Tam, Pui Sun, 2014. "A spatial–temporal analysis of East Asian equity market linkages," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 304-327.
  6. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2013. "The London Commercial Property Price Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 588-616, November.
  7. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
  8. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  9. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2012. "Migration, housing market, and labor market responses to employment shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 267-284.
  10. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, 02.
  11. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Jensen-Butler, Chris, 2013. "Estimation of the spatial weights matrix under structural constraints," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 617-634.

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