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Urban Decline and Durable Housing

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Author Info
Edward L. Glaeser
Joseph Gyourko

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Abstract

People continue to live in many big American cities, because in those cities housing costs less than new construction. While cities may lose their productive edge, their houses remain and population falls only when housing depreciates. This paper presents a simple durable housing model of urban decline with several implications which document: (1) urban growth rates are leptokurtotic -- cities grow more quickly than they decline, (2) city growth rates are highly persistent, especially amount declining cities, (3) positive shocks increase population more than they increase housing prices, (4) negative shocks decrease housing prices more than they decrease population, (5) the relationship between changes in housing prices and changes in population is strongly concave, and (7) declining cities attract individuals with low levels of human capital.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8598.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8598

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R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert M. Solow, 1973. "Congestion Cost and the Use of Land for Streets," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 602-618, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History and Industry Location: The Case of the Manufacturing Belt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 80-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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