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Crime, Urban Flight, and the Consequences for Cities

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Author Info
Julie Berry Cullen
Steven D. Levitt

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates that rising crime rates in cities are correlated with city depopulation. Instrumental variables estimates, using measures of the certainty and severity of a state?s criminal justice system as instruments for city crime rates, imply that the direction of causality runs from crime to urban flight. Using annual city-level panel data, our estimates suggest that each additional reported crime is associated with a one person decline in city residents. There is some evidence that increases in suburban crime tend to keep people in cities, although the magnitude of this effect is small. Analysis of individual-level data from the 1980 census confirms the city-level results and demonstrates that almost all of the crime-related population decline is attributable to increased outmigration rather than a decrease in new arrivals to a city. Those households that leave the city because of crime are much more likely to remain within the SMSA than those leaving the city for other reasons. The migration decisions of high-income households and those with children are much more responsive to changes in crime than other households. Crime-related mobility imposes costs on those who choose to remain in the city through declining property values and a shrinking tax base.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5737.

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Date of creation: Sep 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5737

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
R23 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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  1. Levitt, Steven D, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Fiscal increasing returns, hysteresis, real wages and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 543-560, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 1996. "Why Is There More Crime in Cities?," NBER Working Papers 5430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Katharine L. Bradbury & Helen F. Ladd, 1987. "City Taxes and Property Tax Bases," NBER Working Papers 2197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cutler, D.M. & Glaeser, E.L., 1995. "Are Ghettos Good or Bad?," Papers e-95-6, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  6. Bergstrom, Theodore C & Goodman, Robert P, 1973. "Private Demands for Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 280-96, June.
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  7. Smith, Barton A., 1978. "Measuring the value of urban amenities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 370-387, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  9. Thaler, Richard, 1978. "A note on the value of crime control: Evidence from the property market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 137-145, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bradford, David F & Kelejian, Harry H, 1973. "An Econometric Model of the Flight to the Suburbs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 566-89, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anne C. Case & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhood on Disad- vantaged Youths," NBER Working Papers 3705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Benabou, Roland, 1993. "Workings of a City: Location, Education, and Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 619-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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