Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns
AbstractIt is widely accepted that aggregate housing prices are predictable, but that excess returns to investors are precluded by the transactions costs of buying and selling property. We examine this issue using a unique data set -- all private condominium transactions in Singapore during an eleven-year period. We model directly the price discovery process for individual dwellings. Our empirical results clearly reject a random walk in prices, supporting mean reversion in housing prices and diffusion of innovations over space. We find that, when house prices and aggregate returns are computed from models that erroneously assume a random walk and spatial independence, they are strongly autocorrelated. However, when they are calculated from the appropriate model, predictability in prices and in investment returns is completely absent. We show that this is due to the illiquid nature of housing transactions. We also conduct extensive simulations, over different time horizons and with different investment rules, testing whether better information on housing price dynamics leads to superior investment performance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy in its series Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series with number qt41k6c76w.
Date of creation: 22 May 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: F502 Haas, Berkeley CA 94720-1922
Phone: (510) 642-1922
Fax: (510) 642-5018
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/iber_bphup/
More information through EDIRC
housing market liquidity; price discovery; spatial correlation; Social and Behavioral Sciences;
Other versions of this item:
- Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2010. "Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 3-23, July.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Guntermann, Karl L & Norrbin, Stefan C, 1991. "Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 297-313, September.
- Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2001.
"Hedging Housing Risk,"
SIFR Research Report Series
2, Institute for Financial Research.
- Peter ENGLUND & Min HWANG & John M. QUIGLEY, 2000. "Hedging Housing Risk," FAME Research Paper Series rp26, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt06t5d6v0, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- John V. Duca, 2005. "Making sense of elevated housing prices," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1, 7-13.
- K. J. Martijn Cremers & Jianping Mei, 2007. "Turning over Turnover," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1749-1782, November.
- Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
- Hong, Yongmiao, 1996. "Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 837-64, July.
- Englund, Peter & Gordon, Tracy M. & Quigley, John M., 1999. "The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-216, September.
- Sing, Tien Foo, 2001. "Dynamics of the Condominium Market in Singapore," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 135-158.
- Hill, R. Carter & Sirmans, C. F. & Knight, John R., 1999. "A random walk down main street?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 89-103, January.
- Randal Verbrugge & Thesia I. Garner, 2009.
"Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey,"
427, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
- Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
- Andrew Coleman & Grant Scobie, 2009.
"A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations,"
09_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Andrew Coleman & Grant M. Scobie, 2009. "A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations," Treasury Working Paper Series 09/05, New Zealand Treasury.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.