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A New Perspective on the Relationship Between House Prices and Income

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  • Quan Gan

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Robert J. Hill

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

We show that a strong linear relationship exists between income and house price quantiles in Sydney (Australia), Houston, and the state of Texas. This suggests that the house price distribution is closely approximated by the income distribution after a location-scale transformation. The slope of the line changes over time in response to changes in the mortgage market. We argue that this finding is consistent with a simple variant on the permanent income hypothesis. We then explore some of the implications with regard to the evolution of house prices, price-to-income ratios, the efficiency of the housing market, the construction and interpretation of hedonic price indexes for housing, and for public policy.

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File URL: http://wwwdocs.fce.unsw.edu.au/economics/Research/WorkingPapers/2008_13.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008-13.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-13

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Keywords: Real Estate; Permanent income; Mortgage market; Housing bubble; Hedonic index;

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References

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  1. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2004. "Housing, Consumption and Asset Pricing," 2004 Meeting Papers 357c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  3. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
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  5. Costas Meghir, 2004. "A Retrospective on Friedman's Theory of Permanent Income," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F293-F306, 06.
  6. Witte, Ann D & Sumka, Howard J & Erekson, Homer, 1979. "An Estimate of a Structural Hedonic Price Model of the Housing Market: An Application of Rosen's Theory of Implicit Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1151-73, September.
  7. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  8. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard P. Voith, 2004. "Hedonic estimates of the cost of housing services: rental and owner-occupied units," Working Papers 04-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "The Paris OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes: Conclusions and Future Directions," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-12-12, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
  10. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2002. "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," NBER Working Papers 8835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2007. "Nonparametric estimation of a hedonic price function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 695-699.
  18. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
  19. Stevenson, Simon, 2004. "New empirical evidence on heteroscedasticity in hedonic housing models," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 136-153, June.
  20. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
  21. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2008. "Hedonic Imputation And The Price Index Problem: An Application To Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 593-609, October.
  22. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  23. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Alan E. Gelfand & Mark D. Ecker & John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 2004. "The Dynamics of Location in Home Price," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 149-166, 09.
  25. Cabray L. Haines & Richard J. Rosen, 2007. "Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 16-35.
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Cited by:
  1. Hans R.A. Koster & Jan Rouwendal, 2010. "The Impact of Mixed Land Use on Residential Property Values," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-105/3, Tinbergen Institute.

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