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What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?

Author

Listed:
  • L. Li

    (The University of Cambridge)

  • K. W. Chau

    (The University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Presale, or selling before completion, is a very common phenomenon in the housing market. However, not all developers presell their units and the proportion of units presold varies over time and across projects. This study examines the factors that affect developers’ decisions to presell their units. Based on housing transaction records on over 1000 projects in Hong Kong, we found that presale has been used as a tool to hedge against future price fluctuations. Developers’ decisions to presell also depend on its effectiveness as a hedging tool, which increases with the size of the development portfolio held by a developer. When the flexibility of a presale is constrained by regulations, its effectiveness declines, thus giving a developer less incentive to presell. Contrary to industry wisdom, presale is not an important source of financing, at least for listed developers in Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:59:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-018-9662-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-018-9662-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Wen-Kai & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Long- and short-term price behaviors in presale housing markets in Taiwan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 350-364.
    2. Yi Fan & Maggie Rong & Wayne Xinwei Wan & Zhenping Wang, 2023. "A Tale of Two Cities: Mainland Chinese Buyers in the Hong Kong Housing Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2205-2232.
    3. Arkadiusz Kuświk & Łukasz Mach & Łukasz Mikołajczyk & Marian Drymluch, 2021. "The influence of characteristics of estate developer’s apartments on the chance of selling them," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 167-190.
    4. Peng, Weicai & Tian, Zhongjun, 2022. "Information acquisition, selling effort and pre-order strategy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Presale; Hedge real estate risk; Regulation; Housing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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