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A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets

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Author Info

  • Su Han Chan

    ()
    (Department of Real Estate at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY)

  • Ko Wang

    ()
    (Newman Chair in Real Estate Finance, Department of Real Estate at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY)

  • Jing Yang

    ()
    (Department of Finance at the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, California State University¡VFullerton)

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Abstract

This paper develops a stylized model to provide a rational explanation for the boom-and-bust price movement pattern that we frequently observe in the real world. Our stylized model indicates that there are three conditions to form a boom-and-bust price pattern in a community: a move-in of high income residents, wide income gap between new and existing residents, and supply process that leads to an inventory buildup. It seems that, based on these three conditions, China is more likely to experience a boom-and-bust price movement pattern than a developed country with a more mature and less vibrant economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 257-282

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Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:14:n:03:2011:p:257-282

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Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web page: http://www.asres.org/

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Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Related research

Keywords: Real Estate Cycles; Boom-and-Bust; Supply Decision; Moving Costs;

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References

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  1. Rose Lai & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2007. "Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188, January.
  2. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June.
  3. William C. Wheaton, 2005. "Ski Resort Real Estate: Does Supply prevent Appreciation?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-16.
  4. Williams, Joseph T, 1993. "Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 825-50.
  5. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-11, May.
  7. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Urban Growth and Housing Supply," NBER Working Papers 11097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
  9. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2000. "Overbuilding: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 493-522.
  10. Harter-Dreiman, Michelle, 2004. "Drawing inferences about housing supply elasticity from house price responses to income shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 316-337, March.
  11. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  12. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-49, 03.
  14. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
  15. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
  16. G. Donald Jud & Dan T. Winkler, 2002. "The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 29-46.
  17. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  18. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  19. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  21. Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2004. "Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 329-357, 06.
  22. Neng Lai & Ko Wang, 1999. "Land-Supply Restrictions, Developer Strategies and Housing Policies: The Case in Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 2(1), pages 143-159.
  23. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  24. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou & Su Han Chan & K. W. Chau, 2000. "Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108.
  25. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
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