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The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices

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Author Info

  • G. Donald Jud

    () (University of North Carolina-Greensboro, Greensboro, NC 27402-6165)

  • Dan T. Winkler

    () (University of North Carolina-Greensboro, Greensboro, NC 27402-6165)

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    Abstract

    This article is the winner of the Innovative Thinking ‘‘Thinking Out of the Box’’ manuscript prize (sponsored by the Homer Hoyt Advanced Studies Institute) presented at the 2001 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This study examines the dynamics of real housing price appreciation in 130 metropolitan areas across the United States. The study finds that real housing price appreciation is strongly influenced by the growth of population and real changes in income, construction costs and interest rates. The study also finds that stock market appreciation imparts a strong current and lagged wealth effect on housing prices. Housing appreciation rates also are found to vary across areas because of location-specific fixed-effects; these fixed effects represent the residuals of housing price appreciation attributable to location. The magnitudes of the fixed-effects in particular cities are positively correlated with restrictive growth management policies and limitations on land availability.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol23n0102/03.29_46.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1/2 ()
    Pages: 29-46
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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:23:n:1/2:2002:p:29-46

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    References

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    1. Rose, Louis A., 1989. "Topographical constraints and urban land supply indexes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 335-347, November.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    4. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    5. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Stephen Malpezzi, 1994. "Housing Prices, Externalities, and Regulation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 94-08, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December.
    2. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2007. "Multiple Transactions Model: A Panel Data Approach to Estimate Housing Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266.
    3. Erling Røed Larsen, 2009. "From data to levy design. The five stages of implementing housing taxes," Discussion Papers 596, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    4. Elias Oikarinen, 2010. "Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Long-run Interdependence Between National Housing and Stock Markets—Evidence from Finnish Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 486-509, November.
    5. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2003. "Pricing Factors in Real Estate Markets: A Simple Preference Based Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 102-120.
    6. Elias Oikarinen, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. Changrong Deng & Yongkai Ma & Yao-Min Chiang, 2009. "The Dynamic Behavior of Chinese Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(2), pages 121-134.
    8. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2011. "A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 257-282.
    9. Wensheng Peng & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 052007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Job creation and housing construction: constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Kincal, Gokce & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Holcomb, James H. & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market," MPRA Paper 29095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    12. David E. Frame, 2008. "Regional Migration and House Price Appreciation," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 96-112.
    13. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January.

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