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Plus-values, consommation et épargne. Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni

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  • Corinne Houizot
  • Francisco Serranito
  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Catherine Mathieu

Abstract

[eng] Wealth effects and consumer spending in the US and the UK Corinne Houizot, Helene Baudchon, Catherine Mathieu and Francisco Serranito The sharp rise in stock market priees over the second half of the 90's is said to have boosted household consumption in the US. Changes in housing and net financial wealth are also said to have had an impact on household consumption in the UK. This paper examines the impact of wealth effects on consumer spending in these countries. Several definitions of wealth are considered. Our empirical results show that a dollar's increase in net financial wealth generates a 5 cents' increase in consumption. The marginal propensity to consume out of net wealth is found to be similar the UK. Wealth effects explain the fall the household saving rate over the second half of the 90's.They have also played significant role in the UK. JEL codes : E 21, E 27 [fre] La forte hausse des cours boursiers, observée dans la seconde moitié des années 1990, est fréquemment évoquée pour expliquer le dynamisme, au cours de cette période, de la consommation des ménages américains et britanniques, et son corollaire, la baisse du taux d'épargne. Cet article analyse les déterminants de la consommation des ménages dans ces deux pays, et en particulier l'importance de l'effet richesse. Il comporte trois parties : un survol des évolutions de la consommation, de l'épargne et de la richesse des ménages au cours des quarante dernières années ; un rappel de la théorie et des modèles à tester ; enfin la présentation des résultats économétriques. Aux États-Unis, d'après nos estimations, une augmentation d'un dollar de la richesse des ménages conduit à un accroissement de la consommation de l'ordre de 5,5 cents, soit des résultats proches de ceux publiés depuis Ando et Modigliani (1963). La forte baisse du taux d'épargne dans la période récente proviendrait essentiellement de la hausse de la Bourse. Au Royaume- Uni, une livre de richesse financière ou immobilière supplémentaire serait consommée à hauteur de 5 pence environ. Les fluctuations de la richesse immobilière résultant de la bulle immobilière de la fin des années 1980 et de son éclatement auraient fortement influencé le taux d'épargne. L'augmentation de la richesse financière aurait contribué positivement à la baisse du taux d'épargne au cours des dernières années.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 73 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 197-240

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_73_1_1593

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1593
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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  1. Hélène Baudchon & Valérie Chauvin, 1999. "Les cigales épargnent-elles ? Une comparaison des taux d'épargne français et américain," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 127-164.
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  3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
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  5. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
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  9. Loïc Cadiou, 1995. "Le mystère de la consommation perdue," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(1), pages 147-164.
  10. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
  11. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
  12. Loïc Cadiou, 1995. "Le mystère de la consommation perdue," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 147-164.
  13. Anindya Banerjee & Juan J. Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1995. "On the Power of Cointegration Tests: Dimension Invariance vs. Common Factors," Working Papers 922, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
  15. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245.
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Cited by:
  1. P.-O. Beffy & B. Monfort, 2003. "Household wealth, portfolio selection and consumption behavior," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2003-08, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  2. Ruxandra Vilag & George Ionescu & Iuliana Predescu & Stela Toader, 2010. "The Romanian Response To The Financial Crisis," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(4-1), pages 37-47, Winter-Sp.
  3. Carol C. Bertaut, 2002. "Equity prices, household wealth, and consumption growth in foreign industrial countries: wealth effects in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 724, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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